Second Quarter 2025 Commentary

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August 2025
As we look back on the second quarter of 2025, it presented a mix of challenges and opportunities, driven largely by evolving policy uncertainties with tariffs and persistent inflationary pressures. I wanted to boil all the information down into a few key points and how they applied to my clients.
3 Notable Themes from Q2 2025 1. Tariffs and Market Volatility: The second quarter was overshadowed by Trump’s tariff policies. It was marked by notable market volatility leading up to, and immediately after, Trump’s “Liberation Day”. There was a lot of market anxiety and sell-offs, but markets quickly recovered as the quarter progressed. I wrote about this in more detail in my prior commentary around “Liberation Day”. It reminded me of the market volatility around the pandemic, but in a shorter period of time. There continues to be uncertainty as deadlines and negotiations change quickly. How I apply this info to help my clients: We partnered together to use the market volatility as an opportunity to buy lower into the market with new and existing money. I also offered flexibility in how we executed this, from lump sum all at once to a more gradual approach. 2. Bonds and Interest Rates: A consistent message across institutions is the expectation for interest rates to remain elevated compared to the pre-2022 environment. This sustained higher-rate environment is viewed positively for the bond portion of my clients’ portfolios, offering attractive income and solid real returns (after inflation). High-quality bonds have demonstrated their value as a ballast against stock volatility. How I apply this info to help my clients: We’ve maintained and reviewed the bond allocation of our portfolios. For clients drawing regularly from their assets, this is a good option to have when the stock portion is coming down. 3. Stock Market Dynamics: Intl finally outperforms US U.S. equity markets, especially large-cap growth stocks, continued to exhibit high valuations, partly fueled by enthusiasm around artificial intelligence. However, this has led to a cautious outlook from some experts regarding long-term U.S. equity returns. This was the narrative at my prior firm year after year, and a key reason for anticipated outperformance by international stocks. Finally, after years of underperformance on the international side, we’re seeing international outperform US, at least for the quarter and year to date. With tariffs being a global matter, having the global diversification really spreads out the risk. How I apply this info to help my clients: Through discussions with my clients, I was able to tailor their US and international allocations more. Some clients are more optimistic in the US market while others in international. Sources: Vanguard, Fidelity, Schwab, AI Looking ahead: My clients’ portfolios are reviewed on a regular basis. This gives us opportunities for rebalancing and other adjustments. In volatile times like these, adding or distributing from the portfolio in a more careful and strategic manner can help us in the long term, while providing more peace of mind in the present. Looking bigger picture, our plans are also reviewed on a regular basis. We focus on what we can control, with the goal of being in a better position in the long term compared to today. And we balance our long term goals with being able to cherish the present chapter of our lives. Please don’t hesitate to reach out. I look forward to helping you soon. You are family and served with ai!-love, Jason with Family Ai! Financial

