Third Quarter 2025 Commentary

Image sources: Wix

October 2025
​
The third quarter of 2025 proved to be another period of positive returns, successfully navigating a complex mix of artificial intelligence enthusiasm, a key move by the Federal Reserve, and evolving global trade dynamics.
3 Notable Themes from Q3 2025 1. Continued AI and Tech Sector Dominance The Artificial Intelligence (AI) theme remained the dominant market driver, responsible for a significant portion of the gains in major US indices. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite both hit new highs, with the technology sector leading the way. The U.S. equity market maintained its upward trajectory, largely fueled by continued advancements and investments in AI technology. Large-cap growth stocks, particularly those linked to AI infrastructure, were the primary engine of the domestic rally. 2. The Federal Reserve's Rate Cut The most significant policy event was the Federal Reserve's decision in September to cut the federal funds rate by 25 basis points—the first rate cut of the year. This move was framed as a "risk management cut," preempting a further slowdown in the softening U.S. labor market. The rate cut, coupled with easing (though still elevated) inflation concerns, led to a decline in bond yields and a corresponding increase in bond prices. This resulted in a welcome positive quarter for core bond portfolios. offering both attractive income and acting as a crucial shock absorber against stock volatility. 3. Easing Trade Tensions and International Market Strength A tentative de-escalation in global trade rhetoric, including a trade truce and interim deals between the U.S. and China, provided a strong boost to international markets. International stocks in both developed and emerging markets, continued to generate superior returns year-to-date compared to their U.S. counterparts. More attractive valuations abroad helped and made international diversification a highly effective strategy this quarter. Sources: Vanguard, Fidelity, Schwab, AI Looking ahead: My clients’ portfolios are reviewed by me on a regular basis. This gives us opportunities for rebalancing and other adjustments. In volatile times like these, adding or distributing from the portfolio in a more careful and strategic manner can help us in the long term, while providing more peace of mind in the present. Looking bigger picture, our plans are also reviewed together on a regular basis. We focus on what we can control, with the goal of being in a better position in the long term compared to today. And we balance our long term goals with being able to cherish the present chapter of our lives. When life happens, we are able to find time together as quickly as needed to adjust our plans. Please don’t hesitate to reach out. I look forward to helping you soon. You are family and served with ai!-love, Jason with Family Ai! Financial

