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Fourth Quarter 2025 Commentary

Industrial Robotic Arms

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Q4 CommentaryJason
00:00 / 06:42
January 2026

The fourth quarter of 2025 ended on a high note despite a backdrop that included the longest U.S. government shutdown. Diversified investors were rewarded as global growth and monetary easing overcame political and fiscal uncertainty.

4 areas that stood out to me in Q4 of 2025 1 Artificial Intelligence: The Artificial Intelligence (AI) narrative moved beyond speculative excitement to a phase of massive industrial build-out. While some critics worry about the scale of corporate spending, I believe we are still in the early innings of this cycle and will reap significant returns on these investments. Much like prior advancements, the majority of the return on investment (ROI) comes after the infrastructure is laid. The massive Capital Expenditure (Capex) we saw in 2025—spent on chips, data centers, and energy—is the necessary foundation that will drive profits and productivity in the years to follow. We are already seeing the first wave of high-ROI applications across various industries including these: Healthcare: AI-driven drug discovery has shortened the time to identify viable clinical candidates from years to months, dramatically reducing R&D costs for pharmaceutical leaders. Robotics & Autonomous Systems: We are seeing a "physical AI" breakthrough. Advanced computer vision and real-time processing have enabled a new generation of autonomous logistics robots in warehouses and the deployment of self-driving capabilities. I took my first Waymo ride in Phoenix! Customer Service: Companies are moving beyond simple chatbots to sophisticated "AI agents" that can handle complex multi-step problem solving, significantly lowering the cost of customer acquisition and retention. 2 Short term volatility While this AI revolution is taking place, I think the market is trying to understand the impact it is having on companies closely tied to it. And what this does is cause relatively more significant volatility in the short term. For example, companies can report absolutely positive news on their businesses and their stock performance can still be mixed. Sharp swings can take place during and outside of market hours. 3 International markets Q4 2025 solidified a historic shift: International stocks significantly outperformed U.S. stocks for the quarter and the year. The outperformance is a major event for diversified investors. Prior to this year, international stocks had not meaningfully outperformed U.S. stocks on an annual basis since 2017. 4 Governmental issues October saw the start of the longest U.S. government shutdown in history. The concern is always around what kind of impact this will have on the markets. Markets ended up climbing steadily through the deadlock, as investors focused on private-sector earnings rather than legislative gridlock. A unique challenge for the Fed and investors was the delay of official economic data due to the shutdown. In December, the Federal Reserve delivered its third consecutive 25-basis-point rate cut, bringing the target range to 3.50%–3.75%. Sources: Vanguard, Fidelity, Schwab, AI Looking ahead: My clients’ portfolios are reviewed by me on a regular basis. This gives us opportunities for rebalancing and other adjustments. In volatile times like these, adding or distributing from the portfolio in a more careful and strategic manner can help us in the long term, while providing more peace of mind in the present. Looking bigger picture, our plans are also reviewed together on a regular basis. We focus on what we can control, with the goal of being in a better position in the long term compared to today. And we balance our long term goals with being able to cherish the present chapter of our lives. When life happens, we are able to find time together as quickly as needed to adjust our plans. Please don’t hesitate to reach out. I look forward to helping you soon. You are family and served with ai!-love, Jason with Family Ai! Financial

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