1st Quarter 2026 Commentary

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April 2026
The first quarter of 2026 was defined by a shift from the optimism of late 2025 to a more defensive stance. The primary drivers were a mix of geopolitical shocks and a fundamental repricing of growth assets.
Here are the 3 areas that stood out to me. 1. Geopolitical Conflict The most significant event of the quarter was the escalation of conflict in the Middle East with Iran. This started on February 28th and continued through the end of the quarter. •The Strait of Hormuz Closure: This critical international waterway was closed during the hostilities, causing an immediate and sharp spike in global oil prices. •Inflationary Pressures: This shock effectively reignited inflation concerns just as they were beginning to cool, putting immediate pressure on global supply chains and consumer discretionary spending. 2. Software Sector Correction After the massive AI-driven rally of 2025, the first quarter saw a significant valuation reset in the technology sector, particularly in software-as-a-service (SaaS) companies. •Impact on profitability: Most traditional SaaS companies charge per "seat" (per user). Investors fear that AI agents will perform tasks previously handled by humans, leading to a direct reduction in the number of licenses a company needs to buy. •Impact on competition: Historically, building a dominant enterprise software platform took years and millions in R&D. AI tools have dramatically lowered the barrier to entry. 3. Impact of Iran war on Fed Policy The monetary easing story that defined the end of 2025 took an unexpected turn in Q1. •From Cuts to Pause: Following the December rate cut to the 3.50%–3.75% range, the inflation spike caused by the Iran conflict forced the Federal Reserve to pause its easing cycle. •Policy Shift: for the first time in over a year, Fed commentary began to reflect the possibility of a rate hike rather than a cut. Sources: Schwab, Fidelity, Vanguard, AI Looking ahead: My clients’ portfolios are reviewed by me on a regular basis. This gives us opportunities for rebalancing and other adjustments. In volatile times like these, adding or distributing from the portfolio in a more careful and strategic manner can help us in the long term, while providing more peace of mind in the present. Looking bigger picture, our plans are also reviewed together on a regular basis. We focus on what we can control, with the goal of being in a better position in the long term compared to today. And we balance our long term goals with being able to cherish the present chapter of our lives. When life happens, we are able to find time together as quickly as needed to adjust our plans. Please don’t hesitate to reach out. I look forward to helping you soon. You are family and served with ai!-love, Jason with Family Ai! Financial

