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2nd Quarter 2026 Commentary

Data Server Room

Image sources: Wix

Cargo Ship Sailing
Q2 2026 audioJason
00:00 / 04:49
July 2026

The second quarter of 2026 was marked by market resilience. Following the defensive stance and market stumble in the first quarter, global markets staged an impressive comeback. The S&P 500 had its strongest quarterly performance since the post-pandemic rebound of 2020. 

Here are the three areas that stood out to me this quarter: 1. Geopolitical De-escalation and the Energy Reversal The cloud of geopolitical conflict that defined Q1 began to clear in Q2. •The Ceasefire: In early April, a ceasefire agreement between the U.S. and Iran brought a pause to hostilities. •The Strait Reopens: The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz allowed global shipping to resume, causing oil prices to drop from their peak of almost $120 per barrel back down to pre-war levels around $70. This provided immediate relief to global supply chains and significantly calmed the fears of a prolonged inflationary spiral. 2. Technology rebound The overall tech sector corrections we navigated in Q1 reversed sharply as investment spending showed zero signs of slowing down. •The Tech Rally: Technology was the best-performing sector this quarter, gaining over 30% as demand for AI chips and infrastructure surged. •Distinction within tech during this time period: oSub-sectors benefiting: Semiconductors & Memory Chipmakers, Networking & Data Center Equipment, Global AI Supply Chains oSub-sectors not benefiting: Enterprise Software, Big Tech "Hyperscalers", Legacy IT Consulting & Services 3. The Fed’s Balancing Act Under a New Chair Kevin Warsh was appointed the new Federal Reserve Chair. Monetary policy remained a key focal point. •Holding Steady: The Fed held interest rates steady in the 3.50%–3.75% range. •Lagging Data vs. Forward Reality: While backward-looking May inflation data ticked up to 4.2% (capturing the peak of the oil crisis), the subsequent decline in crude prices at quarter-end has given the Fed breathing room. The market shifted from pricing in a rate hike this fall back to a watchful pause, monitoring if lower energy prices will quickly translate to cooler inflation reports. Sources: Schwab, Fidelity, Vanguard, AI Looking Ahead: My clients' portfolios are reviewed by me on a regular basis. This gives us opportunities for rebalancing and other adjustments. In volatile times like these, adding or distributing from the portfolio in a more careful and strategic manner can help us in the long term, while providing more peace of mind in the present. Looking bigger picture, our plans are also reviewed together on a regular basis. We focus on what we can control, with the goal of being in a better position in the long term compared to today. And we balance our long term goals with being able to cherish the present chapter of our lives. When life happens, we are able to find time together as quickly as needed to adjust our plans. Please don’t hesitate to reach out. I look forward to helping you soon. You are family and served with ai!—love, Jason with Family Ai! Financial

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